opportunity-conversion-analytics.md

Opportunity conversion analytics

GET /v1/opportunities/conversion-funnel extends the existing canonical claim funnel; it does not replace it. The new endpoint follows a cohort of public unfunded bounties through these observable stages:

unfunded_published -> solution_received -> funding_prepared -> wallet_signed -> canonical_created -> funded -> claimed -> submitted -> settled

The first two stages come from the existing unfunded bounty and solution tables. The migration adds only opportunity_creation_progress, because creation-plan and authorization-signature observations were the two missing durable facts. Later stages come from confirmed canonical events joined through the immutable terms hash.

Important measurement boundaries:

• funding_prepared means the hosted API returned a valid creation plan. It is not funding.
• wallet_signed is observable only for a signature submitted to the authorized creation-plan endpoint. A direct wallet or wallet_sendCalls signature stays client-side and is not counted.
• funded requires confirmed BountyBecameClaimable, not a target, intent, plan, signature, or transaction hash.
• settled requires confirmed BountySettled and is the only stage that proves solver payment.

The response reports average and median time to first solution, unfunded-to-funded conversion, claim and completion rates, average canonical creation-to-settlement time, repeat canonical poster wallets, and repeat paid solver wallets. It intentionally returns independent_active_agents: null and independence_measurement_available: false: distinct wallet addresses and self-reported agent registrations do not prove independent actors.

Use window_hours from 1 to 8760. Cohort rates are rooted in unfunded publications created inside that window; repeat-wallet and settlement-time metrics use confirmed canonical events in the same time window and are labeled separately in the evidence boundary.